bigger area of above normal temps, alaska is a total flip

I'm still EC.

That area of warmth is getting bigger

Pretty much inline with my forecast

Sort of, I guess...

"Similar" core of warmth.

Totally different distribution of cold.

Looks like an Omega block, trough west, ridge central, trough east.

You're kidding, right? Your area of warmth is much larger and looks to go deep into Canada vs. a circle of warmth ending just over US boarder. They have no below normal probabilities, you have a "large swath." But, why worry. Nobody cares about your November forecast.

This outlook is idiotic. It makes no sense. Not with conventional wisdom of indexes and how those indexes evolve, not with trend either.

This makes no sense. I'm sorry... this is classic abandonment of inclusion of any polar indicies, purely for the traditional beaurocratic reason that some a-hole on top believes one cannot presume the polar index modes, so it must be all partial ENSO at November time of year.

"Dude, get over it - she left you cause your not the one - not because your thesis project sucked!"

garbage!

Ok, there is actually one way they could be right.

Since the last 30 years have demonstrated warming relative to patterns, even if the pattern "looks" cold, somehow the dailies verify milder than expected.

Are they considering that deeply... ? I don't know.

Just looks like somebody's house pet took a dump on "daddy's" map.

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN THE TROPICAL CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING OCTOBER, WITH SSTS BY THE END OF THE MONTH MORE THAN 1.0 DEG C ABOVE AVERAGE BETWEEN 170E AND 145W AND BETWEEN 125W AND THE WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA. DEPARTURES OF MORE THAN 2.0 DEGREES CELSIUS WERE OBSERVED NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE AND BETWEEN 115W AND THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST. DURING THE PAST MONTH PERSISTENT NEGATIVE SATELLITE-BASED OUTGOING LONG-WAVE RADIATION (OLR) ANOMALIES WERE OBSERVED OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC, INDICATING ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THAT REGION. POSITIVE OLR ANOMALIES WERE OBSERVED OVER WESTERN INDONESIA, PORTIONS OF MALAYSIA AND THE EASTERN INDIAN OCEAN. LOWER LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC AVERAGED WEAKER THAN NORMAL DURING OCTOBER WHILE UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES WERE OBSERVED OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. THESE CONDITIONS ARE TYPICAL OF THE EARLY STAGES OF EL NINO. THE LATEST NCEP COUPLED OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE MODEL CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM (CFS) FORECAST INDICATES CONTINUED STRENGTHENING THROUGH JFM, WHEN IT PREDICTS ANOMALIES AVERAGED OVER THE BOX DEFINED BY 170W EASTWARD TO 120W, AND 5 DEGREE NORTH AND SOUTH LATITUDE (NINO 3.4) OF 1.5 DEGREES CELSIUS. A MAJORITY OF OTHER MODELS ALSO PREDICT CONTINUED STRENTHENING, BUT NOT AS MUCH AS DOES THE CFS.

THE UPDATED MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR NOVEMBER 2006 CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND MIDWESTERN UNITED STATES, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED FOR HAWAII AND PARTS OF ALASKA. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST REFLECTS INPUT FROM THE TRADITIONAL STATISTICAL TOOLS, AND THE CFS... COMBINED WITH INDICATIONS FROM THE FIRST COUPLE OF WEEKS OF THE MONTH. DESPITE A COLD START TO THE MONTH OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CONUS... IT APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND MIDWESTERN PART OF THE NATION WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF THE FIRST WEEK OF THE MONTH. A RATHER PERSISTENT TROUGH DURING THE FIRST FEW WEEKS OF THE MONTH FAVORS BELOW NORMAL MONTHLY TEMPERATURES OVER ALASKA.

THE UPDATED MONTHLY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR NOVEMBER 2006 CALLS FOR ABOVE MEDIAN MONTHLY PRECIPITATION ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST... IN WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS... AND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS ANTICPATED OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ALASKA DURING THE MONTH. THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST REFLECTS INPUT FROM THE TRADITIONAL STATISTICAL TOOLS, THE CFS AND THE CAS, WHICH HAVE SOME LIMITED SKILL OVER TEXAS FOR THIS FORECAST COMBINED WITH INDICATIONS FROM THE FIRST COUPLE OF WEEKS OF THE MONTH. IN PARTICULAR VERY WET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST DURING THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE MONTH... WITH ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ALSO FAVORED OVER THIS REGION DURING THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS.

FORECASTER: M HALPERT

"Dude, get over it - she left you cause your not the one - not because your thesis project sucked!"


Ahh, lol, Classic.

ERIC

A few comments:

1. Models are already questioning the veracity of this forecast. GFS ens suite suggests short period of warmth.

2. Is issuing a forecast the day before a month begins a long range forecast?

I've noticed every warm outlook bullseye's WI lately. NWS has it in for me.

It is sickening to me that you would accuse NOAA of being beaurocratic when making their montly weather forecast. Also to call someon else's forecat idiotic at the start of the month is a dangerous thing to do. The results will speak for themeselves at the end of the month we will compared your outlook to NOAA'S. I'm not saying I agree with your forecast or their forecast (I'm more on the warmer camp) but you have to be careful when being so quick to call someones forecast idiotic. Shows low class and a lack of character.

Folks,
As the above indicates and as noted by me last month, the CFS model is forecasting the NINO 3.4 trimonthly anom. to peak at +1.5 C in JFM. That is much closer to a strong El Nino than weak fwiw. I'm continuing to closely follow the OHC, SST's, and SOI. My latest forecast is for a +1.2 to +1.3 trimonthly 3.4 peak, but I may raise it soon. I've recently been thinking that +1.3 is on the low end of possiblities rather than the high end.

Get over it!

Way to contribute to the discussion.

Then again, you rarely add anything of value anyhow.

March58's comments were spot on.

What makes no sense about it?

They could be off, but so could you. Their idea is as valid as anyone's.

Oh, come on! Who cares if Tip said what he said? He MADE a forecast. As long as you MAKE a forecast, you can say whatever you want about someone else's forecast. At least Tip says what he thinks! As for me not adding anything of value, if my posts are worthless, why in hell are you replying to one of my posts?

I see the month as back and forth more than anything.....my analogs were saying cold....so I see some validation on that and the month is starting cold...but the strength of the warm up it the areas NOAA has the aboves is also very impressive.

Say what?!
Question the science of it, ok.
Call it idiotic and refer to a forecaster as an a-hole? Give me a break.
That is not professional.

Excuse me but what is the big deal with John's wording here? He questioned the methodology and suggested that beaurocratic rules "from above" may have some influence on wording in a forecast. Anyone who has ever worked for the US Govt knows that is certainly a possibility for many of us who are scientists, researchers, or clinicians.

I did not see anyone called an idiot.

Thank goodness we have an open forum here where Tip and others can be heard. Especially if someone wants to challenge conventional thinking.

If anyone thinks a forecast is idiotic, than this is the place to say so.

As long as it is about weather, bring it.

Gentlemen,

Please don't make me come into this thread and be the voice of reason. Reasonable is not easy for me to do.

Tom

I didn't find fault with Tip questioning the outlook. He presented his reasoning perfectly well.
I just question calling it idiotic and calling the guys boss an a-hole.

I guess John edited those part out. But vis a vis the a-holes on the top....that is not a knock on the forecasters but agency managers....and probably not far off the mark.

Doesnt help matters when listening to CNN, FOX, and the other national news channels and they say a blatant lie about the fall being a warm one and why home heating fuel etc is low and why NOAA went for a warmer then normal winter. Yes they said that. This i heard this morning. There is ALOT of blame to go around with this. When one is pushing the others lies.

And oh btw....more and more guidance suggesting that the northern tier in that very warm area is going to be close to some VERY cold air.

Last week, Harry, a co-worker told me that a morniing met at a local station said that every El Nino has resulted in a warm and low-snow winter in central PA. Just, wow.

Yeah, some of what you say is right of course.

I was taking fun at the expense of a public office, though. That's the American way A-hole was a bit strong.

You shouldn't be sickened by suspecting beaurocractic entanglements in a public offices either. Beyond the existence of which is axiomatic to anyone with a moment's awareness of how a Governmental office operates, I also know a couple of former NWS'ers that escaped the service because they were "sickened" by the degree of beaurocracy they had to deal with on a daily basis. That may not be NOAA proper, but it is clear that they are not including polar indicies in their forecasts and this displeases me.

I know I've dragged LWX Nov 02 into plenty of threads already, but I think it belongs here . . .

On 11/30/02 a met from there spoke with media in the Northern Shen Valley about the upcoming winter. In what seemed to be a paroting of the Govt line, she said that due to El Nino we'd likely have below normal snow and what snow we saw wouldn't come until Jan.

This was 120 hrs before the Dec 5, 2002 snow began. That storm was not a great surprise. JB, LC, and others had been on it for days. Even if the met in question had chosen in her professional judgement to dismiss the guidence. The lack of mention of the possibile event, even if only in an OTOH aside that 'many mets are watching Dec 5, but in my view it wont happen . . .', suggested to me that someone - probably a manager rather than a met - was scripting 'the company line' and keeping the people on the same (wrong) page.

old axioms are always true. Ignorance is _______

Brian,
If you had 'READ' my post you would not have been inclined to as "What makes no sense about it? "

This makes no sense. I'm sorry... this is classic abandonment of inclusion of any polar indicies, purely for the traditional beaurocratic reason that some a-hole on top believes one cannot presume the polar index modes, so it must be all partial ENSO at November time of year.

TO ME, it is supplanting some of their skill if they choose to abandon the inclusion of a polar indicies; this was clear to many of us at the conference up here over last weekend, from J D'Aleo and other Mets I spoke to one-on-one. This is not made up, nor was anything I said in that post a personal attack on any particular soul. It was, however, an attack on a very apparent policy.

When I said some a-hole and idiotic, those are not adjectives directed at a particular individual - common, it was context cynicism, which is a common tool in figurative writing. They were spoken in imaginary tenths, for sardonic purposes.

Thank goodness there are no laws in free-speech where if one is attempting to invoke cynical humor, they must have to watch out for the delicate sensibilities of Brian.

Lighten up would yah

yhbrooklyn',
I did not call "the guy's boss and a-hole", because that implies I know a particular guy, and am personally attacking.

That did not take place.

I said "some a-hole on top", which is a figurative assessment of what commonly goes on, and is also borrowed form for dark humor that we see in other literature... It's common to refer to the "imaginary a-hole" on top culturally, and we all know the cliche behind that. That is all.

Listen lets not make a big deal about this, way too many posts already. I may have been too harsh in calling you out Tip. When I see someone say another's montly forecast is idiotic it makes me angry-in my opinion it is arrogant. I know its just your opinion, but as a pro met I would expect you to be more professional. But if you want to call NOAA's forecast idiotic you have that right. But be prepared for similar criticism when your forecast's dont' work out as well as you would like.

Oh i believe it. I have heard it mentioned a few times already this fall on the local outlets. Pretty ballsy considering that 04-05 happend not so long ago. Kinda funny because i was discussing that with someone else from here who fell for that line and ofcourse i disagreed and then they said oh it hardly ever snows during a nino and they will agree with the broadcast Met blah blah blah. So after i listened to them i then proceeded to point out 04-05 and how snowy that was and then mentioned a few other snowy winters and then dropped the Nino bomb on them. LOL
Talk about some fast bactracking. But see that is what happens when people hear that from all ends.
I believe all should share in the blame for that but more so NOAA because they are the source and you NEVER ever hear them mention or talk of any cold winters that have happend during a Nino. They basically sound like it is a sure thing. And that is why you hear so many people talk about them the way they do on this board. Sure a number of winters may have been warm and snowless but a number of them have not. For whatever reason they ignore that and no they are not the only ones to do that either. BUT imo it begins with them and then goes down from there as they are the ones who head up the weather for this country.

Oh and no i am not saying whether i agree or not with the Nov Call either. But i do question some of the methods they may ( Or may NOT ) be using. I guess it would help if we had someone on this board who actually works there and knows the methods they use or dont use etc and could explain them to us. I know usetobe ( WES) did a little demo at HPC for those who went on the tour at the confrence so maybe he can weigh in on this?
But i dont agree either way with the media pushing BS lies either. I wanted to jump thru the TV this morning when i heard that said about this fall being warmer then normal across the country.

Speaking of monthly forecasts, did you issue a winter forecast yet. I recall you doing fairly well last winter. I'd like to see you do one again.

Fair enough.
In retrospect, a-hole is benign compared to the things that could have been said.

That's just it. One opinion vs another. Lets see 30 days from now who is correct.