you dont deserve a red tag

The CFS is on the high end of the guidance, and I doubt that the Nino stays strong long enough to have a tri-monthly peak catagorized as such (+1.5).

The GFS at 120 hours and beyond, if correct, suggests a much warmer pattern for a large portion of the eastern US. It has been relatively consistent the past several days in indicating a relaxation of the 500MB. pattern, with more of a zonal orientation of heights dominating. For instance, past 120 hours the GFS shows many frames with 570dm. heights or greater north of the PA/MD border, the Mason Dixon Line region.
Ridiculous, but interesting to look at, is 384 hours out with the 1036MB. high in the Atlantic and 580's heights sprawling well up into the central latitudes.

It does appear there will be lots of 60-65F days in the Philadelphia area beginning next week and the possibility of a few 70F+ days. This is a an example of what may happen at times this winter when El Nino plays the predominant role.

To get a cold winter this year, we will need strong upper air disturbances to plow south and counterbalance the moderate El Nino. The relaxation of the 500MB. pattern for an extended period, if the GFS verifies, would warrant that Chuck's warm winter forecast thread be given some merit.

This is likely to be a difficult winter to forecast, given snowcover was lackluster early fall in the northern latitudes, but then reversed to near normal and above normal as we progressed into mid-fall due to strong surface lows and exceptional 500MB. cold core lows aloft. A low solar flux and moderate El Nino lean against a cold winter, but the 500MB. pattern had appeared to be trending active suggesting opportunities for cold/snowy periods. If the 500MB. pattern relaxes and the snow in Canada gets eaten away/stops expanding southward the warmer winter scenarios will be worth monitoring for more credence. The next two weeks will be interesting, and likely have an impact on how the winter outlooks do. If we move out of the aggressive 500MB. pattern for 10+ days and get a prolonged blowtorch, El Nino affect before central/southern Canada builds a sustained snowpack, odds will favor a near normal or milder than average winter in much of the East.

Jerry, Tip

As someone who has forecast for many years with the NWS, I never had a forecast where the beaurocracy or management tried to make me change my forecast. I very seriously doubt that happened at CPC. Having talked recently with one of their forecaster, it's pretty clear that to some extent, the trend of the past 10 years has had a big impact on their forecasts. It's hard to forecast colder than normal when the 10 year average for everywhere in the country is above normal. Also, they do use indices. If the forecast was for a tanked nao through the 14 days using the ensembles, I'm pretty sure you'd see a very different November forecast.

Their forecast may or may not be right. Time will tell. i don't mind someone saying why they differ and think a forecast is wrong but don't like the criticism that in a way impugns them as scientists. I'm sure John (Tip) didn't mean it that way but in effect saying the forecast may be driven by politics or the beaurocracy, does impugn them Heck, they verify their outlooks and those stats are available to the general public. That is a big deterent that would make it hard to get a forecaster to put out a inferior forecast that they thought was inferior because of some beaurocratic nonesense.

anyway, my thoughts. I hope I'm not being too preachy. If I'm a little defensive, I appologize (sp?) but I have friends at CPC. don't always agree with their forecasts and wish sometimes they would be more aggressive with their outlooks, but they are solid scientists.

Wes

Keystone,

Although the moderate el nino sample is small for Philly, the difference in mean temperatures between 1994 and 2002 was about 5F in November. The oceans too will dictate and so far the warm pool south of Newfoundland has not formed. To me the Atlantic pattern does not look that bad. On the Pacific side, the eastern Pacific does not look as warm as it did in 2002, although there have been worse looking anomalies for snow. I think the million dollar question is how long does this warm-up last. It is maintaining itself and advancing in days (not stuck at day 13 anymore) so have greater confidence about a warmer next week; don't know if its a blip or longer change. The other aspect to watch also is the nao errors, the gfs continues to underestimate the strength of the negative nao.

IMO... we may be dealing with a situation like this past September. We see a big warmup on the models, yet within several days they begin to indicate a low moving across the SE and keeping temps down due to cloudiness/rain across the NE. I think we may see something like that in the November 7th-15th period, however afterwards we should cool down and by the 20-25th be fairly below normal (IMO).

It's ok Wes.. much of my intent was tongue in cheek but some of that affect was apparently missed.

I just didn't like the forecast they put out, and I chose a sardonic way of implicating them for it. No offense intended.

Your problem is that you can't deal with the fact that others may have a contrary view/opinion with what you believe to be true and take offense with that. It's a sign of lack of self confidence and immaturity that someday you might be able to overcome. Analog96 on the other hand is absolutely unconsciously incompetent about his interpersonal/communication skills and as a result will unfortunately always be trapped in that paradigm.

I think you do better to not contribute.

You have very poor insights and wield unnecessary criticisms of others, which is more definitely a sign of youth, immaturity and rushing to conclusion of hostility - none of which you are helping by rendoring this sort of ill-timed (when considering the content of the post you are responding to is by all rights an apology) critique.

The situation was dealt with; please let it go.

I met Nails in Baltimore, very mature even keeled fellow.

Wow. Just wow.

He comes on the scene 2 days after the fact over something that is dead in the water and recongers it up ?

It makes little sense to do that and is unnecessary because it is a personal prosecution of 2 people that he cannot verify factually.

Think about that, and, what could motivate his feelings of being supreme enough to rendor such an "adroit" pyscho-babble eval of others, before you defend, will yah.

I'm sure that he is a great guy, intelligent and insightful - he just did not use these in sufficient measure when he copped off about Analog96 and myself. Otherwise, he probably would not have done so. Furthermore, if he actually acknowledged what I said when I stated it was meant as tongue and cheek and did not mean to offend anyone, that omission stands for much that he ignored ...just so he could criticize. That's should give a clue.

He shouldn't said anything.

You do realize that you're just embodying the qualities you're criticizing him for having, right? I mean, you're aware of that, aren't you? Because I just wanted to make sure you knew.

No ...I am not.
I believe I am entirely correct, both morally and logically in this situation.

No more comments from me, I stated optnion above, you can have the last word.

Whatever lets ya sleep at night, Sippy-cup.

Look,

...He implicated me, I defend my self....so that means you get to say anything.

You don't make any sense from either a moral or logical perspective on the matter and I believe now that you are trying to poke this bs along because you enjoy it.

Way to take one sentence out of an entire passage for the purpose of evoking and affect ??

His having poor insights was specific to the subject matter at hand - mind you.

Having had bb blowouts with both John and Hart in the past, I can honestly say that meeting them both was a pleasure...and I look forward to it again. Things get lost in these translations it seems.

Jeeez guys, hasn't this lived long enough? Time to let it go, no?

All,

Cut the personal attacks - now. This thread is already ripe for some heavy pruning.

Thx

Don't wax all morality-wise on me, Sippy-cup. This is a weather message board on the Internet. No one's "implicating" anyone.

I'm absolutely "poking this bs along" for kicks... and look how effective prodding you has proved, Sippy-cup. You're a one man show (if that)!

So.........hows that CPC updated Nov outlook lookn'?

You just proved my point. Why would you name call. Ok - whatever floats your ego while sinking your boat..

I would not wax-philo with someone clearly ill-prepared to get it.

KPANTZ please...prune every entry I have made into the thread. By all means... Or I'll do it for you.

I have selective reading. It sounded like a generalization to me. Obviously you didn't intend it that way. I apologize.